The Elderberry Bush and the Ad

Recently, a video was published titled ‘2nd episode: The Elderberry bush’, in which it is argued that a video, having so far been presented as key evidence of a BUK being transported in Makiivka on July 17, 2014 could not possibly have been filmed on July 17, 2014.

The reason: The BUK video shows a ‘Elderberry bush’ in blossom and these bushes do only blossom in this region beginning to mid of June.

The video in question (2nd episode: The elderberry bush) is making this argument convincingly):

This already casts some doubt on July 17, 2014 being the date of the original BUK video.

But there is more. In the same original BUK video, we see a billboard at the roundabout, almost at the end of the video. It’s an advertisement for a one year subscription to a sports club  in the region going by name of sportsart (screenshot from Twitter, but originally, the image is from the website of the sports club, where the date indicates it was published on July 1, 2014):

the-famous-add

One can find the company, whose add we see here. They have it still on their website, dated July 1, 2014. Here it is as screen-shot from that website, taken July 11, 2016:

adds-sportsart-4

By checking their other adds, one can infer that they have no clear policy on how much in advance they publish these adds. You’ll find 1 day to up to 2 month in advance, as here ( screen-shot from there website, taken July 11, 2016):

adds-sportsart-3

So, assuming the company doesn’t throw its money out of the window, by placing adds on billboards in the city after the promotion has ended, we would think that it was likely placed before July 1, 2014 and not after (however, it may still have been there after July 1).
This allows us to narrow down the period of the video from May 1, 2014 to at least July 17, 2014 (which is the claim of the original video of the BUK).
Normally, one would think that paying beyond July 1, 2014 would not be in the interest of the sports club and that the billboard company would be interested in renting out the space, so that the billboard would not hang there beyond the period the space was rented for – but these were difficult times then and one has to check anyway.
It should be easy enough to check with the sports club and with the billboard company to fix the period. In fact, it seems so easy and straightforward, so that in makes you wonder why the people who claim it must have absolutely  been July 17, 2014, have not done so already.

Going out on a limb her, and judging just by the information available to me right now, i.e. the billboard together with the elderberry bush, I would fix the period to first half of June 2014 as most likely period the video was taken.

 

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