From the NYT (via Barry RitholzTt) we get this graph:
This immediately puts into question the value of government statistics. In fact, it exposes it for the fraud it is. Here is why. Let’s look at the Birth-Death adjustment. What it does is explained by Barry as follows:
A quick refresher on the Birth Death adjustment: In 2001, the Bush administration directed the BLS to compensate for the tendency of the Establishment Survey to miss new business formation and the impact on employment. Previously, BLS tended to under report new jobs in the beginning of a a cycle turn. What the new B/D Adjustment series did was take new incorporation filings per state, and deduce from them that new jobs were being created. (That took effect around 2003).
Now, in the newest BLS Labor statistics which Chris Martensen dissects beautifully, the BDA is 32,000.
However, this contradicts the above information from the NYT. In fact, job growth is zero.
It is not like one would need statistics to determine that for the last few months a look into the newspapers suffices to discern that companies are shedding more jobs than they are creating.
This does highlight one fact though which is that we are being lied to with – among other things – cooked government statistics and we have been lied to for several years by both parties.
In the graph above you’ll see home health care as a solidly growing area. This sounds like good news, but is it? No. Home health care is expensive, in fact all health care is. It may be that we will soon find that people can no longer afford (home) health care and that this was a temporary growth.