Where is the economic growth going to come from? Even if the financial crisis were solved today and credit flow restored would economic growth follow and if yes, would it be sufficient to pay off all the debt that has been accumulated?
I suspect that the growth rate would need to be very high if we were to return to the economy we had. In addition, it would have to be growth around the world. That would put a strain on the environment and certainly aggravate climate change. In the process of achieving this growth, natural resources would be used up pretty quickly, as an diagram on the newscientist.com (information via ritholz.com) makes clear.
As an example, Indium is used for LCD Screens. Resources of Indium will be depleted in 13 years, if the world consumes at the current rate. It will be depleted in 4 years, if the world consumes at half the current U.S. rate.
If those figures are correct, it would mean that economic recovery is not possible unless
- you can either grow Indium on demand out of thin air; or
- we find a way to get Indium from other planets;
Let’s just hope none of these require more Indium than we have.