It's Credit Default Swaps again

The market for Credit Default Swaps does seem to predict a hard time for sellers of these derivatives as the market think that defaults will be likely, but payouts low as Bloomberg reports.
It may be that there is another round of write-downs of CDOs coming. There are mounting losses with credit-card companies such as American Express whose customers default on their debts in ever greater numbers. If those CDOs are insured by CDSes, e.g. by AIG the write-downs will be off-set only partly by the CDS payouts if the CDS sellers cannot pay them. I wonder how much AIG FP, ehm the U.S. Taxpayer, will have to cough up in this case.